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Markets

What is leading, and over what horizon

One row per market exposure, nine horizons across. A move that leads over a day often lags over a decade, and the point of putting them side by side is that you can see which is which.

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Horizon

Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Aug 28, 2026

Lagging
Leadingmidpoint 0%
ExposureETF1DWTDMTDQTDYTD1Y3Y Ann.5Y Ann.10Y Ann.
1US Large CapIVV-0.2%+0.5%+3.0%+3.2%+13.5%+21.0%+22.4%+13.2%+15.3%
2US Mid CapIJH-1.2%-1.3%+0.7%-1.8%+14.8%+20.8%+15.3%+8.8%+10.9%
3US Small CapIJR-0.8%-1.2%+0.1%-1.8%+21.7%+28.9%+15.6%+7.7%+10.6%
4US Large GrowthIVW-0.6%+0.9%+3.5%+1.8%+13.6%+21.8%+27.1%+13.5%+17.5%
5US Large ValueIVE+0.1%+0.0%+2.4%+4.5%+11.9%+19.6%+16.4%+11.8%+11.8%
6US QualityQUAL-0.4%+0.2%+2.0%+1.9%+13.0%+20.0%+19.6%+11.2%+14.2%
7US MomentumMTUM-1.5%-1.8%+0.0%-12.6%+20.0%+23.3%+29.3%+12.5%+15.8%
8US Minimum VolatilityUSMV-0.2%+0.5%+3.9%+5.5%+8.8%+10.5%+13.0%+7.3%+10.2%
9US Large Cap Equal WeightRSP-0.3%-0.4%+2.6%+3.7%+16.1%+20.7%+16.3%+9.4%+12.0%
10Developed ex-USEFA-0.3%-0.5%+2.0%+3.7%+13.9%+20.8%+19.2%+9.7%+9.4%
11EuropeVGK-0.3%-0.8%+1.5%+3.9%+12.0%+20.1%+19.2%+9.6%+9.9%
12JapanEWJ+0.0%+0.7%+3.8%+2.8%+19.4%+24.8%+20.8%+10.1%+9.0%
13Emerging MarketsEEM-0.7%+0.0%+4.8%-1.9%+23.4%+37.1%+23.4%+8.8%+8.3%
14ChinaMCHI+0.6%-0.8%-1.0%+8.2%-7.4%-5.7%+11.2%-1.3%+3.4%
15Cash / T-BillsBIL+0.0%+0.1%+0.3%+0.6%+2.4%+3.9%+4.6%+3.6%+2.3%
16Short TreasurySHY-0.2%-0.1%+0.2%+0.0%-0.8%+2.7%+4.2%+1.8%+1.7%
17Intermediate TreasuryIEF-0.4%+0.0%+0.2%-1.5%-3.1%+1.3%+3.4%-1.7%+0.5%
18Long TreasuryTLT-0.3%+1.0%+1.2%-3.4%-2.4%+0.3%+0.1%-8.1%-2.3%
19US AggregateAGG-0.3%+0.1%+0.5%-0.8%-0.1%+2.5%+4.5%-0.3%+1.4%
20TIPSTIP-0.5%-0.2%+0.1%-1.3%-2.7%+2.0%+4.2%+0.3%+2.3%
21Investment Grade CreditLQD-0.4%+0.4%+0.5%-2.2%-3.1%+1.4%+5.3%-0.8%+2.1%
22High YieldHYG-0.2%+0.2%+0.8%+0.7%+2.4%+5.1%+8.7%+3.8%+4.6%
23EM DebtEMB-0.3%+0.2%+0.7%-1.2%-1.0%+6.4%+9.7%+1.7%+2.7%
24GoldGLD-3.2%-3.4%+10.1%+11.0%+3.2%+33.0%+32.6%+19.7%+12.3%
25Broad CommoditiesDBC-0.2%-1.5%+4.6%+15.5%+37.7%+46.2%+13.4%+14.6%+9.2%
26REITsVNQ-0.4%-1.3%-1.7%+0.8%+12.0%+12.6%+10.8%+2.0%+5.0%
27InfrastructureIGF-1.0%-0.7%-2.8%-2.5%+7.4%+9.7%+16.7%+10.4%+7.7%

Every row is a market exposure, represented by one tradable ETF. Rows carry equal analytical weight — nothing here is weighted by fund assets, market capitalisation or anything else, because the fund is a proxy for the market and not a measure of it. 3Y, 5Y and 10Y are rates per year, not cumulative. Country returns are in US dollars and therefore include the currency move. means we do not have the number: either the exposure is too young for that horizon or its anchor is missing. Nothing is filled in from a shorter window.

Performance shown is backtested and hypothetical. It does not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on decision-making. Backtested results are calculated from March 1996 through the most recent weekly data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not investment advice. All investments carry risk, including possible loss of principal. The strategy uses survivorship-bias-aware constituent data — delisted and failed companies are included in the backtest.