Weekly Market UpdateWeek of Sep 28, 2026Sep 25, 2026
S&P 500 Rose, but Participation Remained Weak
Three Things to Know This Week
The S&P 500 gained 1.3% for the week while the median constituent fell 0.9%.
- The index-level advance was not broadly shared across its constituents.
Momentum and Large Growth led the major U.S. style exposures during the week.
- Leadership remained concentrated in growth-oriented and momentum exposures rather than broadening evenly across styles.
A 20% gold sleeve improved the 60/40 tradeoff over the last five years.
- In this five-year window, adding gold increased return while modestly reducing portfolio volatility.
State of the Stock Market
S&P 500 · Sep 25, 2026
Trend: Strong
3/3 moving averages above · 7 trading sessions in this strong trend since Sep 17, 2026
Risk
Low & Falling
63-day realized vol 11.5% · reference 15.1%
From 52-week high
-0.6%
52-week high set Aug 13, 2026
Position
Near Trend
Relative to the S&P 500's own 200-day trend history
Distance from trend
50-Day
+1.5%
7 trading sessions above since Sep 17, 2026
100-Day
+2.8%
118 trading sessions above since Apr 9, 2026
200-Day
+7.9%
119 trading sessions above since Apr 8, 2026
Broad markets
Total returns across major market exposures and horizons, shown side by side.
Tip: click any ticker to analyze it.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad commoditiesDBC | Broad commodities, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Broad commodities, Month to date: up 4.2 percent | Broad commodities, Quarter to date: up 22.4 percent | Broad commodities, Year to date: up 45.9 percent | Broad commodities, 1 year: up 51.5 percent | Broad commodities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.8 percent | Broad commodities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.5 percent | Broad commodities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.2 percent |
| Emerging marketsEEM | Emerging markets, Week to date: up 1.4 percent | Emerging markets, Month to date: up 1.4 percent | Emerging markets, Quarter to date: down 0.6 percent | Emerging markets, Year to date: up 24.9 percent | Emerging markets, 1 year: up 30.8 percent | Emerging markets, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.8 percent | Emerging markets, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.5 percent | Emerging markets, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 8.4 percent |
| U.S. small companiesIJR | U.S. small companies, Week to date: down 0.4 percent | U.S. small companies, Month to date: down 4.0 percent | U.S. small companies, Quarter to date: down 6.4 percent | U.S. small companies, Year to date: up 16.0 percent | U.S. small companies, 1 year: up 17.5 percent | U.S. small companies, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.6 percent | U.S. small companies, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.3 percent | U.S. small companies, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
| U.S. equitiesIVV | U.S. equities, Week to date: up 1.3 percent | U.S. equities, Month to date: up 0.8 percent | U.S. equities, Quarter to date: up 3.8 percent | U.S. equities, Year to date: up 14.1 percent | U.S. equities, 1 year: up 17.6 percent | U.S. equities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 23.0 percent | U.S. equities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.3 percent | U.S. equities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 15.5 percent |
| International developedEFA | International developed, Week to date: up 0.6 percent | International developed, Month to date: down 1.8 percent | International developed, Quarter to date: up 1.6 percent | International developed, Year to date: up 11.7 percent | International developed, 1 year: up 17.4 percent | International developed, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 18.4 percent | International developed, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.0 percent | International developed, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.1 percent |
| Real estateVNQ | Real estate, Week to date: down 1.2 percent | Real estate, Month to date: down 4.8 percent | Real estate, Quarter to date: down 4.8 percent | Real estate, Year to date: up 5.7 percent | Real estate, 1 year: up 4.0 percent | Real estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.1 percent | Real estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.1 percent | Real estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.3 percent |
| High-yield creditHYG | High-yield credit, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | High-yield credit, Month to date: down 1.9 percent | High-yield credit, Quarter to date: down 1.2 percent | High-yield credit, Year to date: up 0.5 percent | High-yield credit, 1 year: up 1.6 percent | High-yield credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 7.9 percent | High-yield credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 3.3 percent | High-yield credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 4.3 percent |
| GoldGLD | Gold, Week to date: down 1.9 percent | Gold, Month to date: down 3.7 percent | Gold, Quarter to date: up 6.8 percent | Gold, Year to date: down 0.7 percent | Gold, 1 year: up 16.0 percent | Gold, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 30.1 percent | Gold, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 19.2 percent | Gold, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent |
| U.S. aggregate bondsAGG | U.S. aggregate bonds, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Month to date: down 2.0 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Quarter to date: down 2.9 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, Year to date: down 2.2 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 1 year: down 1.3 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 3.9 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 0.6 percent | U.S. aggregate bonds, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.2 percent |
| Investment-grade creditLQD | Investment-grade credit, Week to date: down 1.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, Month to date: down 2.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, Quarter to date: down 4.2 percent | Investment-grade credit, Year to date: down 3.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, 1 year: down 3.3 percent | Investment-grade credit, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 4.4 percent | Investment-grade credit, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 1.3 percent | Investment-grade credit, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 1.8 percent |
| Long-duration TreasuriesTLT | Long-duration Treasuries, Week to date: down 2.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Month to date: down 3.5 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Quarter to date: down 7.2 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, Year to date: down 6.2 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 1 year: down 6.8 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 3 years annualised, annualised: down 0.5 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 5 years annualised, annualised: down 8.4 percent | Long-duration Treasuries, 10 years annualised, annualised: down 2.6 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 25, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Explore Broad Betas →
Open the full multi-horizon leadership tool to compare markets, styles, sectors, and time periods.
S&P 500 sectors
Total returns for the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EnergyXLE | Energy, Week to date: down 3.0 percent | Energy, Month to date: down 2.4 percent | Energy, Quarter to date: up 17.5 percent | Energy, Year to date: up 41.5 percent | Energy, 1 year: up 45.4 percent | Energy, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.2 percent | Energy, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 23.8 percent | Energy, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.5 percent |
| Information TechnologyXLK | Information Technology, Week to date: up 3.5 percent | Information Technology, Month to date: up 5.7 percent | Information Technology, Quarter to date: up 3.0 percent | Information Technology, Year to date: up 36.3 percent | Information Technology, 1 year: up 41.5 percent | Information Technology, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 34.4 percent | Information Technology, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 21.0 percent | Information Technology, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 24.8 percent |
| Health CareXLV | Health Care, Week to date: up 1.4 percent | Health Care, Month to date: up 0.1 percent | Health Care, Quarter to date: up 7.6 percent | Health Care, Year to date: up 11.2 percent | Health Care, 1 year: up 26.5 percent | Health Care, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.2 percent | Health Care, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.9 percent | Health Care, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.6 percent |
| MaterialsXLB | Materials, Week to date: down 0.4 percent | Materials, Month to date: down 5.5 percent | Materials, Quarter to date: down 2.0 percent | Materials, Year to date: up 10.7 percent | Materials, 1 year: up 11.7 percent | Materials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.2 percent | Materials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 6.2 percent | Materials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.8 percent |
| IndustrialsXLI | Industrials, Week to date: up 0.4 percent | Industrials, Month to date: down 3.8 percent | Industrials, Quarter to date: down 8.0 percent | Industrials, Year to date: up 9.9 percent | Industrials, 1 year: up 12.7 percent | Industrials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.3 percent | Industrials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 12.7 percent | Industrials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 13.3 percent |
| Consumer StaplesXLP | Consumer Staples, Week to date: down 0.9 percent | Consumer Staples, Month to date: down 4.0 percent | Consumer Staples, Quarter to date: down 1.2 percent | Consumer Staples, Year to date: up 5.6 percent | Consumer Staples, 1 year: up 6.3 percent | Consumer Staples, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 8.0 percent | Consumer Staples, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.7 percent | Consumer Staples, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 7.2 percent |
| Real EstateXLRE | Real Estate, Week to date: down 2.3 percent | Real Estate, Month to date: down 5.0 percent | Real Estate, Quarter to date: down 4.8 percent | Real Estate, Year to date: up 5.5 percent | Real Estate, 1 year: up 3.6 percent | Real Estate, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.0 percent | Real Estate, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 1.4 percent | Real Estate, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 5.8 percent |
| FinancialsXLF | Financials, Week to date: down 1.8 percent | Financials, Month to date: down 5.6 percent | Financials, Quarter to date: up 2.3 percent | Financials, Year to date: up 0.1 percent | Financials, 1 year: up 2.7 percent | Financials, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 19.4 percent | Financials, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 9.3 percent | Financials, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 13.0 percent |
| Communication ServicesXLC | Communication Services, Week to date: up 1.9 percent | Communication Services, Month to date: up 1.7 percent | Communication Services, Quarter to date: up 5.8 percent | Communication Services, Year to date: down 3.2 percent | Communication Services, 1 year: down 3.9 percent | Communication Services, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 21.2 percent | Communication Services, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.6 percent | Communication Services, 10 years annualised, annualised: not available |
| Consumer DiscretionaryXLY | Consumer Discretionary, Week to date: down 0.4 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Month to date: down 5.7 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Quarter to date: down 5.7 percent | Consumer Discretionary, Year to date: down 7.4 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 1 year: down 7.7 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 12.0 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 4.5 percent | Consumer Discretionary, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent |
| UtilitiesXLU | Utilities, Week to date: down 3.9 percent | Utilities, Month to date: down 7.5 percent | Utilities, Quarter to date: down 12.9 percent | Utilities, Year to date: down 7.4 percent | Utilities, 1 year: down 4.4 percent | Utilities, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 10.7 percent | Utilities, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.0 percent | Utilities, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 7.8 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 25, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Investment styles
Total returns across major U.S. style and factor exposures across the same horizons.
Sorted by YTD return · strongest to weakest
| Exposure | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 3Y Ann. | 5Y Ann. | 10Y Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum factorMTUM | Momentum factor, Week to date: up 2.9 percent | Momentum factor, Month to date: up 6.3 percent | Momentum factor, Quarter to date: down 6.9 percent | Momentum factor, Year to date: up 27.8 percent | Momentum factor, 1 year: up 24.9 percent | Momentum factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 32.6 percent | Momentum factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.0 percent | Momentum factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 16.5 percent |
| Large GrowthIVW | Large Growth, Week to date: up 2.2 percent | Large Growth, Month to date: up 2.7 percent | Large Growth, Quarter to date: up 4.3 percent | Large Growth, Year to date: up 16.6 percent | Large Growth, 1 year: up 19.1 percent | Large Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 28.4 percent | Large Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 13.9 percent | Large Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 17.9 percent |
| Small ValueIJS | Small Value, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | Small Value, Month to date: down 4.1 percent | Small Value, Quarter to date: down 4.1 percent | Small Value, Year to date: up 15.9 percent | Small Value, 1 year: up 19.3 percent | Small Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.5 percent | Small Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.0 percent | Small Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.4 percent |
| Small GrowthIJT | Small Growth, Week to date: down 0.2 percent | Small Growth, Month to date: down 3.9 percent | Small Growth, Quarter to date: down 8.7 percent | Small Growth, Year to date: up 15.8 percent | Small Growth, 1 year: up 15.4 percent | Small Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.3 percent | Small Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 5.2 percent | Small Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
| Mid GrowthIJK | Mid Growth, Week to date: up 0.7 percent | Mid Growth, Month to date: down 2.1 percent | Mid Growth, Quarter to date: down 5.7 percent | Mid Growth, Year to date: up 14.6 percent | Mid Growth, 1 year: up 15.1 percent | Mid Growth, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.2 percent | Mid Growth, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.2 percent | Mid Growth, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 10.7 percent |
| Quality factorQUAL | Quality factor, Week to date: up 2.0 percent | Quality factor, Month to date: up 0.7 percent | Quality factor, Quarter to date: up 2.1 percent | Quality factor, Year to date: up 13.3 percent | Quality factor, 1 year: up 17.1 percent | Quality factor, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 20.4 percent | Quality factor, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.6 percent | Quality factor, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 14.4 percent |
| Equal WeightRSP | Equal Weight, Week to date: down 0.6 percent | Equal Weight, Month to date: down 3.4 percent | Equal Weight, Quarter to date: down 0.4 percent | Equal Weight, Year to date: up 11.5 percent | Equal Weight, 1 year: up 13.9 percent | Equal Weight, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 15.8 percent | Equal Weight, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.3 percent | Equal Weight, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.6 percent |
| Large ValueIVE | Large Value, Week to date: up 0.1 percent | Large Value, Month to date: down 1.5 percent | Large Value, Quarter to date: up 2.6 percent | Large Value, Year to date: up 10.7 percent | Large Value, 1 year: up 15.3 percent | Large Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 16.3 percent | Large Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 11.4 percent | Large Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 11.7 percent |
| Mid ValueIJJ | Mid Value, Week to date: down 0.7 percent | Mid Value, Month to date: down 3.7 percent | Mid Value, Quarter to date: down 4.5 percent | Mid Value, Year to date: up 7.9 percent | Mid Value, 1 year: up 10.0 percent | Mid Value, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 13.7 percent | Mid Value, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 8.0 percent | Mid Value, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
| Minimum VolatilityUSMV | Minimum Volatility, Week to date: down 0.1 percent | Minimum Volatility, Month to date: down 2.8 percent | Minimum Volatility, Quarter to date: up 2.3 percent | Minimum Volatility, Year to date: up 5.5 percent | Minimum Volatility, 1 year: up 6.3 percent | Minimum Volatility, 3 years annualised, annualised: up 11.9 percent | Minimum Volatility, 5 years annualised, annualised: up 7.1 percent | Minimum Volatility, 10 years annualised, annualised: up 9.9 percent |
Total return, from adjusted closes. Data through Sep 25, 2026. — unavailable · 3Y/5Y/10Y annualised; shorter horizons cumulative.
Chart of the Week
Gold: Return, Correlation, and Portfolio Risk
Gold has been strong over the last five years, but the longer record shows that leadership changes. The charts compare cumulative return, rolling correlation, and rolling 3-year annualized returns, then test what a 20% gold allocation changed in a balanced portfolio.
Gold · 5Y cumulative
+140.9%
S&P 500 · 5Y cumulative
+86.3%
Latest 52W correlation
0.39
Average rolling correlation
0.15
- Gold
- S&P 500
Cumulative total return from the common five-year starting observation, expressed in percent. Source: TrendToWealth total-return adjusted ETF prices · Data through Sep 25, 2026
- 52-week correlation
52-week rolling correlation of weekly total returns. Source: TrendToWealth total-return adjusted ETF prices · Data through Sep 25, 2026
- Gold
- S&P 500
Each point is the annualized total return over the trailing three years, using the longest common GLD/S&P 500 history available. Source: TrendToWealth total-return adjusted ETF prices · Data through Sep 25, 2026
Latest rolling 3-year annualized return: Gold +30.0% · S&P 500 +23.0%. Across the full available history, Gold led in 42% of rolling 3-year windows — leadership has depended on the environment.
Portfolio follow-up: 60/40 vs. 50/30/20 with Gold
The comparison uses the same trailing five-year window. The traditional mix holds 60% S&P 500 and 40% U.S. aggregate bonds; the alternative holds 50% S&P 500, 30% aggregate bonds, and 20% gold. Both are rebalanced monthly.
- 60/40 Portfolio
- 50/30/20 with Gold
Monthly-rebalanced balanced portfolios over the same trailing five-year window. 60/40 = 60% S&P 500 / 40% U.S. aggregate bonds. 50/30/20 = 50% S&P 500 / 30% U.S. aggregate bonds / 20% gold. Source: TrendToWealth total-return adjusted ETF prices · Data through Sep 25, 2026
| Portfolio | Ann. return | Ann. volatility | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60/40 | +7.7% | +10.6% | -20.5% |
| 50/30/20 + Gold | +10.5% | +9.9% | -18.6% |
Portfolio takeaway: Over this five-year window, the 50/30/20 mix produced a higher annualized return, lower volatility, and a smaller maximum drawdown than the traditional 60/40.
- Gold and U.S. equities both delivered strong returns over the trailing five-year window.
- Rolling 3-year returns show periods when each led; gold has not consistently outperformed.
- The portfolio comparison tests whether replacing 10 percentage points of stocks and 10 percentage points of bonds with gold changed return, volatility, and drawdown.
Why it matters: The question is not whether gold always wins. It is whether including gold improved the portfolio’s return and risk tradeoff over the period.
Three Things We're Watching
Does participation above the 200-day average improve?
- 47.1% of measured S&P 500 constituents were above their 200-day average at the September 25 close.
Does leadership broaden beyond Momentum?
- Momentum remained the leading major U.S. style exposure year to date at +27.8%.
Does short-term breadth stabilize?
- 25.6% of measured S&P 500 constituents were above their 50-day average.
Notes & methodology
Returns. Total-return adjusted prices through September 25, 2026.
Proxies. S&P 500: IVV · U.S. aggregate bonds: AGG · Gold: GLD.
Portfolio test. Monthly rebalancing over the same trailing five-year window.
AI assistance. This issue was prepared with AI-assisted research and drafting and reviewed by TrendToWealth before publication.
Explore full cross-asset returns and screening on the Market Map.